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关 键 词：销售stata软件版本
行 业：IT 软件 教学管理软件
发布时间：2023-12-15
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Frequentist inference is based on the sampling distributions of estimators of parameters and provides parameter point estimates and their standard errors as well as confidence intervals. The exact sampling distributions are rarely known and are often approximated by a large-sample normal distribution. Bayesian inference is based on the posterior distribution of the parameters and provides summaries of this distribution including posterior means and their MCMC standard errors (MCSE) as well as credible intervals. Although exact posterior distributions are known only in a number of cases, general posterior distributions can be estimated via, for example, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling without any large-sample approximation.
The principles of Bayesian analysis date back to the work of Thomas Bayes, who was a Presbyterian minister in Tunbridge Wells and Pierre Laplace, a French mathematician, astronomer, and physicist in the 18th century. Bayesian analysis started as a simple intuitive rule, named after Bayes, for updating beliefs on account of some evidence. For the next 200 years, however, Bayes’s rule was an obscure idea. Along with the rapid development of the standard or frequentist statistics in 20th century, Bayesian methodology was also developing, although with less attention and at a slower pace. One of the obstacles for the progress of Bayesian ideas has been the lasting opinion among mainstream statisticians of it being subjective. Another more-tangible problem for adopting Bayesian models in practice has been the lack of adequate computational resources.
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Also, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are known to have parameters that have direct economic interpretations and often have logical bounds that can be easily incorporated by a variety of prior distributions.
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